Sunday, July 19, 2009

Taking a Look at the Futures


No, that's not a typo. I stopped at a casino yesterday and picked up some futures sheets. Specifically, college football and NFL. Before we get started I want to be clear that I grabbed them from the Silverton Casino which uses a sports and race book called Leroy's that can be found around Nevada. Kind of like a McDonald's franchised for gambling degenerates' pleasure. If you look around at other casinos you could find different odds. Let's start with college football.


Leroy's has PSU at 25/1. I think that's fair considering if we learned anything from last year's Rose Bowl, it's that the Lions are still a bit behind the big boys. Beating some SEC or Big 12 powerhouses might be out of their range, then again maybe its not. But what raises some questions straight from a football stand point is that Notre Dame is also listed at 25/1. PSU and ND on the same level? Nope, that's where the gambling comes into play. You see, almost any Notre Dame fan that is still waiting for Charlie Weiss' recruiting mastery to kick in will bet on the Irish to win it all anytime they come to Vegas. You know this, I know this, the Vegas odds makers know this. So the key is to place the odds just right so those guys will throw the money down, but the books won't take a bath if somehow Jimmy Claussen turns into Joe Montana this year. Other odds of note: Florida is the favorite at 2/1, Sooners get 4/1, Texas & USC 5/1, Ohio State 10/1, Pitt 50/1, the field 25/1 that's right you can pick Temple and get better odds than picking Pitt.


On to the NFL, no real surprises here. Pats are the favorites at 9/2 followed by the Steelers 6/1, Giants have the same odds, followed by the Colts 8/1 and the Cowboys at 10/1. Never mind that the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game in a decade, and just lost their best receiver. Pats are 2/1 to win the AFC, Steelers are 5/2. If you're looking to throw some money at something may I suggest Vikings 2/1 to win the NFC or 5/1 to win the Super Bowl before Favre signs up and those odds shrink.


Personally, I hate that the Pats are the favorite just because Brady is back. I know I shouldn't run my mouth before the season starts, but that defense was looking a little old last year. And the Giants exposed that O-Line in the Super Bowl two years ago, and the Steelers tore it up when they played in New England last year. I know I'm biased, but I think the Steelers have a much better at repeating than they did after Super Bowl XL. Other than that I think it's wide open this year.


So gentleman, place your bets. Or don't.



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