Next MLB 300 Game Winner

Recently, there was some discussion of a dying breed in MLB...the 300 game winner. When Randy Johnson won his 300th game there was discussion about the next possible pitcher to win 300 games. Many said it may never happen again. They claim the 300 game winner heading into extiction is due to... 5 man rotations, pitch counts, high salaries and erratic bull pens. Many focused on current pitchers that have won 100 games by the age of 28, giving them another 10-12 years to win the other 200 or so. A few that were mentioned were... CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Mark Buehrle and a few others. I feel the most likely was omitted. Former Pirate, Tim Wakefield. A knuckleball pitcher can last longer than the "normal" type of hurler. Phil Niekro pitched until he was 48. It is conceivable that Tim could pitch until 48 or even 50. Tim will be 43 years old this August and stays in great shape. At this point in time ( June 25th ) Wakefield has 187 wins. If we give Wake only 5 more wins this year he ends 2009 with 192 wins. Needing 108 after that to reach the coveted 300, pitching through his 48th birthday, he would have 6 years left. He could reach 300 by averaging 18 wins per season. If he plays until he's 50 he could reach 300 by averaging 13.5 victories. Not impossible since he is with such a good team. What is more likely is that Tim would win 8 more games this year...bringing his career total to 195 at the end of this year. Thus he would only have to play until he was 49 years old ( his uniform number ) and average 15 wins per season. I'm sure if he were 5-10 victories short, he would try for the extra season at age 50. The next few years will be crucial. If Wake can average 17 wins in the next 4 years he would only be 37 short and only 46 years old. A worst case scenario is that Wakefield could wind up like Hoyt Wilhelm or Early Wynn hanging on to get #300. However, that would be a sure-fire ticket to the Hall of Fame. It would be very possible that by age 49 needing less than 10 victories would drive him to play long enough to reach the milestone.

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